Mild El Nino conditions forecasted....

[Jahsurfs!]

I'm sure some of you have read this but just in case...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... index.html

[Jahsurfs!]

here is stormsurf.com synopsis of the el nino and it's long term swell forecasts
more info can be found on http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/enso/current.shtml


LONG-RANGE NORTH PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST

Fall-Winter 2004 Swell Generation Potential (for California & Hawaii) = 6.5

There is no data supporting development of a significant El Nino event this year, but lot's of data suggesting a mild one. In actuality, if a mild one develops, this would be good. It is not uncommon to have a series of years where mild El Nino conditions persist. They slowly and subtly change the atmospheric weather patterns in favor of producing slightly stronger and more frequent winter storms in the North Pacific, but not so much as to cause full blown storm conditions to fill the North Pacific basin. During strong El Nino events, storm conditions often take over the coastal regions of Hawaii and the US West Coast, making the large waves produced by these strong winter storms unrideable from a surfing perspective and inflicting needless damage to property and civilian livelihood. The spectacle produced by such events is certainly not worth the cost to humans and wildlife. But the subtle guiding influence of a mild El Nino strung out over several years can produce a series of climatic changes that favor the development of storms in both the North and South Pacific without the associated poor local weather and damaging winds and rains. We are hopeful that such a pattern is developing.

All current predictive data continues to suggest we are approaching development of a mild El Nino pattern in the coming few months. But for the short-term (through September), no significant change in the storm and surf pattern is forecast. But if El Nino does develop, it would be likely for late season West Pacific typhoons to recurve to the northeast and become extratropical, possibly moving towards the dateline and eventually the Gulf of Alaska. Given that this current El Nino is rather weak and late in developing, the extratropical influence is not expected to be strong and possibly even un-noticeable. Likewise as the late Fall and early Winter seasons occurs, a slow but steady enhancement to the normal storm track could be expected, with some increase in the size and consistency of the winter surf pattern occurring, and certainly better than the past 2 years. The El Nino enhancement could also have the ability to extend the winter surf season a month or so longer than normal, but not strongly.

So for now, plan on a 'normal' summer (though it's been something less than that in July going into August) and a normal start to the early Fall season. A slow evolution towards a mildly more active pattern could then develop, but it's still too early to tell with any certainty.

[surfer9joe]

man I hope that forecaster is right.

[Jah,]

the signs are in place, they just aren't sure how long they will last. 3 months straight would leave them to believe it's the start of a mild el nino and would effect weather patterns enough to throw more surf. The next month or two is going to be crucial for evaluating how big or how long El Nino might be.....Fingers crossed!!